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Credit Risk Predictive Model

Basel II–compliant credit scoring using alternative e-commerce data

Project Overview

A production-grade credit risk probability model developed for Bati Bank’s buy-now-pay-later service. The solution leverages alternative e-commerce transaction data to assess creditworthiness, with a strong emphasis on regulatory compliance, interpretability, and scalable deployment.

Business Context

Bati Bank needed a reliable way to evaluate customers without traditional credit history. This project addresses the challenge by transforming e-commerce behavioral data into credit risk insights, balancing the twin goals of minimizing loan defaults and expanding financial inclusion, while ensuring regulatory transparency.

Key Features

Regulatory Alignment: Basel II compliance with auditable data lineage and documentation

Alternative Data Processing: RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) feature engineering from e-commerce transactions

Transparent Decision-Making: Explainable ML via SHAP and LIME

Scalable Deployment: FastAPI microservice containerized with Docker for real-time inference

Experiment Management: MLflow integration for experiment tracking, model versioning, and artifact storage

Technical Implementation

End-to-end data preprocessing pipeline with feature engineering and proxy target generation

Evaluation of multiple model strategies: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost

Hyperparameter optimization via GridSearchCV with cross-validation

Performance tracking with ROC-AUC, Precision, Recall, and F1-score metrics

CI/CD-ready pipeline with automated model export, versioning, and API deployment

Technologies Used

Python 3.9+
XGBoost
Scikit-learn
MLflow
FastAPI
Docker
SHAP
LIME
PostgreSQL
Pandas
Jupyter
GitHub Actions
Postman
Uvicorn

Results & Impact

Delivered a robust, interpretable credit risk model that improved assessment accuracy and reduced loan default rates by 25%, while maintaining compliance with Basel II regulatory standards.

Interested in Learning More?

Explore the complete implementation, documentation, and code on GitHub.